Texas
Interagency Interfaith Disaster Response
e-Buzz
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24 May 2007 |
Friend,
Today, Thursday, May 24, 2007, you
are receiving the fourth installment of TIDR's public
information campaign for National
Hurricane Preparedness Week.
Today the focus will be on 2007's
forecast and the forecast process. There
is a projection of a 75% chance that the Atlantic
Hurricane Season will be above normal this year,
according to the experts at the NOAA Climate Prediction
Center. NOAA recommends those in hurricane-prone
regions to begin preparing. Read on to learn about
this year's prediction so that we can be ready.
Tomorrow's E-buzz will be our final installment for Hurricane
Preparedness Week with the important focus on how to act in
an emergency.
If you need more information or have information to share,
contact us here at TIDR.
Peace,
Amy
Amy BeVille Elder, M.Div.
Executive Director, TIDR
amy@tidr.org
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2007
Hurricane Outlook
Named
Storms: 13-17
Hurricanes:
7-10
Major
Hurricanes: 3-5
Active
Hurricane Season Predicted
Philip Klotzbach, a research associate at
Colorado State University, and Joe Bastardi, the chief
hurricane forecaster for AccuWeather, Inc., said that they
believe there will be more active storms this year. Up
to 17 named storms are anticipated with nine of them classified
as hurricanes. Although a strong system was forecast
for 2006, which did not occur, both scientists stand by
their 2007 forecast.
The first storm of this year arrived about three weeks prior
to the June 1st start of the hurricane season. The season
runs from June through November. In a typical season there
are a little more than 9 storms with about 6 of them becoming
hurricanes, and 2.3 of them becoming major hurricanes. Last
year there were 10 named storms in the Atlantic, five of them
became hurricanes, and none of them made landfall in the United
States.
For 2007, forecasters stated that they believe there is a 74%
chance that a major hurricane will hit the United States with
a 49% chance that it will be along the Gulf Coast between Florida
Panhandle and Brownsville Texas.
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Forecast
Process
Part of the
mission of the National Weather Service (NWS) Tropical Prediction
Center (TPC) is to save lives and protect property by issuing
watches, warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous weather
conditions in the tropics. This section provides information
about the roles of those responsible for providing hurricane
information to emergency managers and decision makers.
The TPC is comprised of the National Hurricane Center (NHC),
the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB),
and the Technical Support Branch (TSB).
During hurricane season, the latter two provide support to the
National Hurricane Center.
The local NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in hurricane-prone
areas are also important participants in the forecast process.
The NHC and your local WFO have various roles in the forecast
process that are closely coordinated. Their activities are summarized
below.
- Observation:
Observations including satellites, buoys, reconnaissance
aircraft, and radar are the basis for all forecast
and warning products issued by the NHC. Quality,
quantity, and timeliness of remote sensing observations
are critical for accurate and timely forecasts and
warnings. Learn
more.
- Analysis:
The various observations are checked for quality,
analyzed, and put into a suite of computer models. Learn
more.
- Model
Guidance and Interpretation: The computer
models take in the observations and perform millions
of calculations to generate predictions of hurricane
behavior and the general conditions of the atmosphere
in which the hurricane is embedded. The model results
are packaged as guidance for the appropriate national
centers and local offices and for evaluation and
use in the NWS's forecast and warning process. Learn
more.
- Coordination
within the National Weather Service: Forecasts
and warnings are coordinated between the national
centers and local forecast offices to provide consistency,
which is critical during severe weather episodes. Learn
more.
- Product
Generation: Once the coordination and collaboration
process reaches group consensus, the issuing offices
generate forecast and warning products for release
to the public. Learn
more.
- Product
Dissemination: Timely and reliable dissemination
of forecasts and warnings is critical to the protection
of life and property. The types of products issued
are described on the Forecast Products page. Learn
more.
- Coordination
with Customers: The NHC and the local NWS
forecast office work with your community leaders
to determine whether the forecast and warning products
issued were useful and how they can provide you
even better service in the future. Learn
more.
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